As Morocco approaches a decisive political moment—with elections looming in September and the end of Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch’s mandate—the government has chosen to raise its economic ambitions. Growth for 2026 is now projected at 5.2%, alongside a target to contain inflation at around 2% between 2027 and 2029.
At first glance, the message is one of confidence. But beneath it lies a more complex question: why is this level of optimism emerging now, at the twilight of the government’s term, rather than earlier in its mandate?
A Narrative of Recovery
The revised projections were outlined in an official circular on Morocco’s multi-year budget framework (2027–2029), addressed to ministerial departments. The government bases its optimism on what it calls “advanced indicators and sectoral forecasts,” aligning its outlook with Bank Al-Maghrib, which recently projected growth as high as 5.6%.
Several drivers support this narrative. A strong agricultural season is expected to exceed initial assumptions, offering a familiar boost to overall growth. Meanwhile, non-agricultural sectors continue to show resilience, with projected growth of 4.6%, supported by rising cement sales and a tourism rebound nearing 19.8 million visitors, a 14% increase year-on-year.
External inflows also play a central role. Remittances from Moroccans abroad, tourism revenues, and foreign direct investment have pushed foreign exchange reserves above 442 billion dirhams, covering more than five months of imports. In official discourse, this signals macroeconomic stability and external balance.
An Economy Still Dependent on External Winds
Yet this apparent strength raises deeper structural questions. Much of the growth remains tied to volatile or external factors—rainfall, global demand, diaspora transfers—rather than a fully transformed productive base.
This dependency becomes more problematic in the current global context. The government itself acknowledges a climate of heightened geopolitical risk, particularly linked to the ongoing war in the Middle East. Tensions affecting strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt energy supplies, pushing oil and gas prices upward and reigniting inflationary pressures worldwide.
In parallel, the International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth at around 3.2% for the coming years—well below pre-pandemic levels—amid persistent shocks: geopolitical conflicts, protectionist policies, inflation cycles, and structural challenges such as aging populations and declining productivity.
Timing: Economics or Electoral Strategy?
The timing of this optimism is difficult to ignore. Announcing stronger growth projections just months before elections inevitably invites a political reading.
For some economists, the issue is not the figures themselves, but their foundations. Growth driven by agriculture, by nature cyclical, cannot guarantee sustainability. Likewise, strong foreign reserves may reflect robust inflows, but not necessarily strong domestic production or job creation.
This raises a central tension: is Morocco witnessing a genuine structural shift, or a favorable alignment of temporary factors being framed as long-term transformation?
The Inflation Question
The government’s confidence in maintaining inflation at around 2% adds another layer of uncertainty. In a stable global environment, such a target might be achievable. But in today’s context—marked by energy volatility and geopolitical fragmentation—it appears highly contingent on factors beyond national control.
Inflation, in this sense, becomes not just an economic indicator, but a reflection of Morocco’s exposure to external shocks.
Beyond Growth: The Real Test
Ultimately, the debate goes beyond percentages. The real challenge is whether projected growth can translate into tangible improvements in employment and purchasing power—the issues that matter most to citizens as they head toward the ballot box.
Morocco now stands at a crossroads between political ambition and economic realism. The figures may tell a story of recovery and resilience, but the deeper question remains: can this growth model deliver lasting impact, or will it remain tied to cycles, uncertainties, and external dependencies?
As September approaches, that question may prove more decisive than the numbers themselves.
