In a surprising move, Algeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the expulsion of the Moroccan Vice-Consul in Oran, Mohamed Sfiani, deeming him “an undesirable person” and demanding that he leave Algerian territory within 48 hours. This decision comes amid a noticeable escalation in relations between the two countries, which have seen growing tensions over the years.
What’s next after the expulsion?
Impact on the Moroccan community:
The city of Oran is home to thousands of Moroccans, who constitute a significant part of the Moroccan community in Algeria. Will this decision hinder Moroccan consular services in the city? Moroccan citizens are likely to face challenges in obtaining consular services, such as document renewals or resolving administrative issues, further complicating daily relations between the two peoples.
Secret negotiations:
Were there behind-the-scenes talks that suddenly collapsed? The expulsion may be the result of failed undisclosed negotiations between the two countries or a sudden political escalation. This raises questions about shadow diplomacy and whether there was an attempt to find a solution before this public decision.
Role of regional players:
Is Morocco being targeted because of its alliances with countries like Israel or the United States? In the context of rising regional tensions, this decision could be seen as part of broader moves aimed at countering Morocco’s growing influence in its regional and international surroundings.
Possible Scenarios:
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Temporary de-escalation through informal channels:
Some international actors may attempt to use unofficial channels to achieve a temporary de-escalation to prevent further escalation between Algeria and Morocco. -
Moroccan retaliation by expelling an Algerian diplomat:
Morocco may respond by taking a similar step, including expelling an Algerian diplomat from its territory, which could exacerbate the diplomatic crisis. -
Freezing cooperation on issues like energy and borders:
The two countries may opt to freeze cooperation on issues of common interest, such as energy and borders, which would have an impact on joint projects in the region.
Chapter 4: Reading between the lines… Why now?
The suspicious timing:
The Algerian decision came just days after the King of Spain’s visit to Morocco, where the issue of the Moroccan Sahara was intensely discussed. This timing may be seen as provocative to Algeria, which views Morocco’s movements and regional alliances as a threat to its policies in the region.
Internal Algerian context:
Is the Moroccan issue being used as a way to distract from Algeria’s economic crises? In light of the economic difficulties, this decision may be an attempt to create internal mobilization and cover up the problems facing the Algerian government.
Strategic analysis:
The expulsion may be a message to European countries and the international community that Algeria will not concede on its positions regarding the Sahara and is ready to exert pressure on Morocco in all regional and international forums.
Conclusion: An Endless Conflict?
The roots of the crisis run deeper than diplomacy:
The Algerian decision confirms that the crisis between the two countries goes beyond mere diplomatic differences; Moroccan-Algerian relations have been deeply influenced by other issues such as the Sahara conflict and regional competition. This escalation suggests that political solutions are still far from being reached.
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Proxy war in the Sahara:
The conflict in the Sahara remains one of the key factors exacerbating relations between the two countries, with Algeria supporting the Polisario Front, while Morocco insists on its full sovereignty over the region. -
Competition for regional influence:
Additionally, the competition for influence in North Africa and the Middle East represents one of the main drivers of tensions between Algeria and Morocco. -
Absence of political will for dialogue:
Despite numerous international calls for negotiation, it appears that both sides are holding firm to their positions, making it difficult to reach a sustainable solution.
The biggest challenge:
Will the Morocco-Algeria borders become a permanent wall, or will the recurring crises between the two neighbors remain just a storm in a teacup? The coming days will determine whether this escalation turns into a new round of political confrontations or if there is still hope for easing the tensions.
