Rapid Geopolitical Shifts Along the Somali Border: Are We Witnessing an Escalation of Regional Tensions?
The Horn of Africa has recently seen significant geopolitical transformations, especially with Egypt’s entry as a new player in the Somali scene after signing a military cooperation agreement with Mogadishu in mid-August 2024. This move coincided with Egypt and Djibouti submitting a request to join the African peacekeeping force, which will begin operations in Somalia next year. The timing of these developments, alongside the increasing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, has raised many questions about the real motivations behind Egypt’s presence in the region and whether this presence could turn into a proxy war between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Is Egypt Adopting a New Approach Towards the Horn of Africa? Egypt’s military presence in Somalia comes after a series of escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. Ethiopia had signed a memorandum of understanding with the separatist region of Somaliland, angering Somalia, which considered it a blatant violation of its sovereignty. In response, Egypt supported Somalia’s unity and opposed the Ethiopian memorandum, leading Cairo to reinforce its military presence in Somalia more visibly. But, can these moves be read as a signal of escalating Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict over influence in the Horn of Africa?
Ethiopia: Reactions and Diplomatic Escalation Ethiopia’s response was swift, with Addis Ababa expressing its rejection of Egyptian actions in Somalia, indicating that it could destabilize the region. In reality, Ethiopia seems to be planning diplomatic escalation against the Egyptian presence, amid concerns about Egypt’s growing influence in Nile Basin countries neighboring Ethiopia, including Egypt’s signing of military agreements with Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. Is Ethiopia moving to undermine Egypt’s spread through regional alliances?
Egypt’s Role: National Security or a Game of Interests? Amid these tensions, Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahid described Egypt’s moves as “proactive” steps aimed at protecting Egyptian national security in a region fraught with various security threats. Although the details of the Egyptian-Somali agreement remain confidential, reports indicate that the cooperation includes multiple areas, such as counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing.
To what extent is Egypt seeking to exploit the current situation to strengthen its regional influence and secure its interests in the Nile Basin? Here arises the important question: Are Egypt’s actions in Somalia truly aimed at enhancing stability, or is the region at risk of becoming a new theater for international conflict?
Proxy War: A Possible Scenario? With the intensification of Egyptian military forces in Somalia and the arrival of planes loaded with heavy military equipment in Mogadishu, the situation seems to be heading toward further tension. The region might witness what journalist Ibrahim Saleh described as a “proxy war” between Egypt and Ethiopia, especially given the complexities of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue and the failure of negotiations to resolve the dispute over Nile water shares.
Conclusion: Open Questions The Horn of Africa appears to be on the brink of entering a new phase of regional conflicts with the growing Egyptian military presence in Somalia and Ethiopia’s corresponding escalation. Will Egypt succeed in achieving its strategic goals without escalating into direct conflict with Ethiopia? How will the international community react to these developments? The Horn of Africa is a sensitive and complex region, and the potential repercussions of these moves could far exceed its borders, necessitating close monitoring of the upcoming developments.
