Since the autumn of 2023, Gaza is no longer just a besieged coastal strip; it has become the bloody laboratory where the power maps of the Middle East are being redrawn. An unprecedented war has claimed the lives of more than 62,000 Palestinians – seven out of ten of them women and children – and displaced over two million people. Hospitals, water, and electricity networks have collapsed to near-total failure. Yet the humanitarian tragedy is only the first layer; beneath the rubble, the equations of politics, influence, and energy are being rewritten.
Israel… victory without a horizon
Israel is waging an open war of attrition against Hamas, but lacks a plan for the “day after.” Can lasting security be built on the ruins of Gaza? Washington continues its unconditional support, torn between mediator ambitions and domestic pressure. Europe, more sidelined than ever, waves the flag of a two-state solution, with little ability to enforce it.
The Gulf… pragmatism on shifting sands
The biggest surprise comes from the Gulf. The region’s monarchies did not merely watch; they invested in chaos to boost their leverage. Saudi Arabia, on the verge of a historic normalization deal with Israel, found itself blocked by Arab public opinion unwilling to forgive such a step on Gaza’s ruins. The question arises: is the Palestinian cause once again a non-negotiable precondition for any regional peace process? A Chatham House report confirms: Palestine, once seen as a fading symbol, has reclaimed its central place in regional diplomacy.
Lebanon… a double war of attrition
In the north, Hezbollah plays its familiar game: a slow war that exhausts Israel while projecting Iran’s shadow. But Lebanon, drowning in over 200% inflation and with 80% of its people in poverty, can it endure another open conflict? Here, collapse may be faster than the pace of rockets.
Red Sea… a silent yet global front
From Yemen, the Houthis have shifted the balance: their missiles target not only Israeli-linked ships but also the arteries of world trade. Some 40% of maritime traffic between Asia and Europe has rerouted away from the Suez Canal, doubling costs. Will the Red Sea turn into a global battlefield for trade?
Iran… patience as a weapon
Tehran plays the long game: enrichment up to 60% without crossing the red line, and an “arc of militias” from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen that keeps opponents under constant strain. Iran is not seeking total war but rather an open-ended timeline to entrench itself as an indispensable actor.
Energy… the new hard currency
Amid this turmoil, energy emerges as the most effective diplomatic weapon. Saudi Arabia controls the oil tap through OPEC+, while Qatar is becoming the “central bank of natural gas,” with a production capacity expected to reach 142 million tons annually by 2030. Is Middle Eastern stability now more dependent on pipelines than ceasefires?
The Middle East… structured by war
Ultimately, the question is not when the Gaza war will end, but rather: how long can the Middle East function in a permanent “war economy” before it collapses entirely?
Israel remains trapped in a security logic without politics, the U.S. is a hesitant military cornerstone, Europe is out of the game, Iran advances on the periphery, and the Gulf consolidates power through oil and gas.
As the Carnegie Middle East Center recently put it:
“The Middle East is now structured by war, not despite it.”
