The Sahel region of Africa is experiencing unprecedented changes, with increasing attention directed towards alliances between states and rebel groups. While countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have sought to establish alliances to address security and political challenges, the scene is witnessing more complex alliances between rebel groups in these countries.
At the end of August 2024, media outlets such as the Italian newspaper “Nigrisia” reported news about an alliance between rebels from Mali and Niger. This alliance, which includes the “Permanent Strategic Framework” from Mali and the National Liberation Front from Niger, has not yet been formalized, but it could pose a serious challenge to the new military governments in the Sahel region. Does this new alliance represent a real threat to the military rulers, or is it merely a publicity stunt?
The Meeting in Tinzawaten: A Step Towards Unifying the Rebels?
The alliance between Malian and Nigerien rebels saw a significant meeting in the city of Tinzawaten on the Algerian-Malian border between August 25 and 29, 2024. The leadership of the National Liberation Front from Niger, represented by its leader Barak Taher Hamid, met with the leaders of the Malian Strategic Framework led by Abbas Ag Antala. But can this alliance persist despite the divergent goals of the two rebel groups?
Divergent Goals and a Volatile Alliance?
While Malian Azawad movements seek to regain control of northern Mali, the National Liberation Front of Niger aims for a fair redistribution of oil wealth and a return to a constitutional system. Can these divergent goals align in the long term, or is this alliance doomed to failure as some analysts predict?
Background of the Conflict: From Azawad to Wagner
The new alliance is not the first of its kind in the region, having been preceded by similar movements from Amazigh groups in Mali, which attempted to establish an “Azawad” state in the north in past years. Despite the failure of this attempt, Azawad movements remain a significant force, particularly with the increasing intervention of Russia via “Wagner” forces to support the Malian government. Can the new alliance succeed amid growing international interventions, or is it destined to fail like previous movements?
National Liberation Front: A New Player in the Nigerien Landscape
The National Liberation Front is one of the significant new players in the Nigerien political scene. Established after the July 2023 coup, it quickly became an influential force on the ground, particularly after carrying out sabotage operations such as the attack on a pipeline between Niger and Benin. Can this group shift the balance of power in Niger and assert itself as a key player in the region?
Open Ending: What Future for Alliances in the Sahel?
It is difficult to predict the future of the alliance between Malian and Nigerien rebels, especially given the political and security complexities in the region. With ongoing conflicts on the ground, many wonder whether these alliances are merely publicity attempts or the beginning of deeper changes that could threaten the stability of the new military governments. Will this alliance turn into a real threat, or will it dissolve over time like previous alliances?
