Amid profound geopolitical shifts and energy realignments, the future of Algerian gas in the European market is under threat. Washington, far from remaining just an arbiter, now plays the role of a major actor, reshaping energy maps through political, economic, and logistical leverage—primarily via the surge in U.S. LNG exports.
Gas as a Soft Power Tool for Washington
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States has elevated natural gas to a strategic weapon on par with armaments. By 2024, U.S. LNG accounted for about 50% of Europe’s imports, while Russian and Algerian flows were drastically reduced.
Gas is no longer a mere commodity; it is a lever of pressure used to discipline “unreliable” regimes such as Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela.
Algeria: From Strategic Supplier to “Untrustworthy” Partner?
Algeria, once central to European energy via pipelines like Medgaz and Transmed, now finds itself under scrutiny due to its politically volatile diplomacy. Brussels increasingly doubts its reliability as a stable energy supplier.
Why is Europe Turning Away?
With the U.S.’s latest goal to ramp up energy exports to $250 billion annually by 2028, many experts call it implausible given existing infrastructure constraints. Nonetheless, Europe seems compelled to pivot toward sources deemed more “secure.”
Algeria’s Programmed Marginalization
Data shows Algerian exports to Europe have declined sharply as U.S. shipments surged between 2021 and 2024. Spain and Italy, impacted by political friction, are increasingly sourcing gas from the U.S. instead of Algeria.
Morocco: The Strategic Beneficiary
Meanwhile, Morocco is gaining traction through U.S.-backed green hydrogen projects, LNG infrastructure, and the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline initiative. The Kingdom is emerging as a credible player in a reshaped energy market.
Verdict: A Chapter Closing in History
With shifting alliances, forced economic pivots, and geopolitical re-engineering, Algeria stands at a historic crossroads. Its energy future rests on whether it adapts or becomes sidelined.
