After Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia\u2019s paramilitary Wagner group, staged a mutiny against President Vladimir Putin and his army last month, questions were raised over the future of his force in Africa \u2013 the cradle of its wealth and notoriety.<\/p>\n
The dramatic rebellion ended in a deal by which Prigozhin was expected to\u00a0move to Belarus with his men. But details about the accord remain sketchy, and as far as Africa is concerned, Wagner can count on its geopolitical and economic weight there to survive.<\/p>\n
Wagner is openly active in at least four countries in Africa \u2013 Mali, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Libya \u2013 typically shoring up fragile regimes in exchange for minerals and other natural wealth.<\/p>\n
The group is frequently accused of atrocities and looting of natural resources, interfering in local politics in numerous conflicts, and running anti-Western information campaigns, especially in francophone West Africa. The United States has labeled Wagner a\u00a0transnational criminal organization, imposing sanctions on Prigozhin and African officials with alleged ties to the group.<\/p>\n
Despite Moscow\u2019s assurances, Mali and CAR are in an uncomfortable position. \u201cMali and other countries that are linked to these non-state elements are now caught between Wagner\u2019s weapons and Moscow\u2019s wrath,\u201d Sembe said.![\"INTERACTIVE](\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/INTERACTIVE-Wagner-Group-revolt-against-Russia-Progozhin-1687679977.png?w=770&resize=770%2C770&quality=80\")
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West out, Wagner in<\/strong><\/h4>\nAt Bamako\u2019s request, French troops \u2013 welcomed in Mali in 2013 when the conflict began \u2013 have withdrawn. The United Nations peacekeeping force is\u00a0also on its way out after the UN Security Council voted to immediately withdraw.<\/p>\n
Wagner is not involved in Russia\u2019s regular military, it has been seen for years as an armed extension of Moscow’s influence in Africa.<\/p>\n
Analysts said it was resentment against France, previously the sole external influence in the region, for failing to stem the expansion of armed groups and supporting authoritarian regimes that opened the door for Wagner, led by\u00a0the now-exiled Yevgeny Prigozhin.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Francophone countries, the presence of Russia is an expression of protest against France. It is a sign of revolt, but it has alienated them against the West,\u201d Sembe told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou have the French intervention in Mali with several operations and you have the \u2026 failure of France and international partners to support Mali to get out of the insecurity.\u201d<\/p>\n
With the UN force departing and Wagner destabilised, fear hovers over the delicate security atmosphere in Mali and its impact on the already\u00a0beleaguered Sahel region.<\/p>\n
\u201cClearly, we must realise these countries don\u2019t have their own agency. And at the same time, it is also a reality for these countries \u2013 they don\u2019t have the willingness to carry out internal reforms so that they can really be in charge of their own security,\u201d Gilles said.<\/p>\n
While Wagner was invited in, the mercenary force has been\u00a0accused of involvement\u00a0in human rights abuses in Africa. The United States has\u00a0designated<\/a>\u00a0Wagner as a \u201ctransnational criminal organisation\u201d responsible for widespread abuses.<\/p>\nA change of guard will likely not reverse the status quo. \u201cI think it won\u2019t change substantially the method of accountability with Wagner, the activities will be certainly maintained in this kind of form,\u201d Bouessel said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether it is Prigozhin or another war entrepreneur, it does not really matter. It is more about who is going to control the company.\u201d<\/p>\n
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A change of guard will likely not reverse the status quo. \u201cI think it won\u2019t change substantially the method of accountability with Wagner, the activities will be certainly maintained in this kind of form,\u201d Bouessel said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether it is Prigozhin or another war entrepreneur, it does not really matter. It is more about who is going to control the company.\u201d<\/p>\n