{"id":3159,"date":"2025-08-21T13:01:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T13:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/?p=3159"},"modified":"2025-08-21T13:01:06","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T13:01:06","slug":"gaza-the-eye-of-the-storm-is-the-middle-east-being-reshaped-on-the-rhythm-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/gaza-the-eye-of-the-storm-is-the-middle-east-being-reshaped-on-the-rhythm-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Gaza, the eye of the storm: Is the Middle East being reshaped on the rhythm of war?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since the autumn of 2023, Gaza is no longer just a besieged coastal strip; it has become the bloody laboratory where the power maps of the Middle East are being redrawn<\/strong>. An unprecedented war has claimed the lives of more than 62,000 Palestinians \u2013 seven out of ten of them women and children \u2013 and displaced over two million people. Hospitals, water, and electricity networks have collapsed to near-total failure. Yet the humanitarian tragedy is only the first layer; beneath the rubble, the equations of politics, influence, and energy are being rewritten.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2026 victory without a horizon<\/h4>\n

Israel is waging an open war of attrition against Hamas, but lacks a plan for the \u201cday after.\u201d Can lasting security be built on the ruins of Gaza?<\/strong> Washington continues its unconditional support, torn between mediator ambitions and domestic pressure. Europe, more sidelined than ever, waves the flag of a two-state solution, with little ability to enforce it.<\/p>\n

The Gulf\u2026 pragmatism on shifting sands<\/h4>\n

The biggest surprise comes from the Gulf. The region\u2019s monarchies did not merely watch; they invested in chaos<\/strong> to boost their leverage. Saudi Arabia, on the verge of a historic normalization deal with Israel, found itself blocked by Arab public opinion unwilling to forgive such a step on Gaza\u2019s ruins. The question arises: is the Palestinian cause once again a non-negotiable precondition<\/strong> for any regional peace process? A Chatham House<\/em> report confirms: Palestine, once seen as a fading symbol, has reclaimed its central place in regional diplomacy.<\/p>\n

Lebanon\u2026 a double war of attrition<\/h4>\n

In the north, Hezbollah plays its familiar game: a slow war that exhausts Israel while projecting Iran\u2019s shadow. But Lebanon, drowning in over 200% inflation and with 80% of its people in poverty, can it endure another open conflict?<\/strong> Here, collapse may be faster than the pace of rockets.<\/p>\n

Red Sea\u2026 a silent yet global front<\/h4>\n

From Yemen, the Houthis have shifted the balance: their missiles target not only Israeli-linked ships but also the arteries of world trade. Some 40% of maritime traffic between Asia and Europe has rerouted away from the Suez Canal, doubling costs. Will the Red Sea turn into a global battlefield for trade?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran\u2026 patience as a weapon<\/h4>\n

Tehran plays the long game: enrichment up to 60% without crossing the red line, and an \u201carc of militias\u201d from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen that keeps opponents under constant strain. Iran is not seeking total war but rather an open-ended timeline to entrench itself as an indispensable actor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Energy\u2026 the new hard currency<\/h4>\n

Amid this turmoil, energy emerges as the most effective diplomatic weapon. Saudi Arabia controls the oil tap through OPEC+, while Qatar is becoming the \u201ccentral bank of natural gas,\u201d<\/strong> with a production capacity expected to reach 142 million tons annually by 2030. Is Middle Eastern stability now more dependent on pipelines than ceasefires?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Middle East\u2026 structured by war<\/h4>\n

Ultimately, the question is not when the Gaza war will end, but rather: how long can the Middle East function in a permanent \u201cwar economy\u201d before it collapses entirely?<\/strong>
Israel remains trapped in a security logic without politics, the U.S. is a hesitant military cornerstone, Europe is out of the game, Iran advances on the periphery, and the Gulf consolidates power through oil and gas.<\/p>\n

As the Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> recently put it:
\u201cThe Middle East is now structured by war, not despite it.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since the autumn of 2023, Gaza is no longer just a besieged coastal strip; it has become the bloody laboratory where the power maps of the Middle East are being redrawn. An unprecedented war has claimed the lives of more than 62,000 Palestinians \u2013 seven out of ten of them women and children \u2013 and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,43,42,41,76],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-africa","category-asia-americas","category-europe-russia","category-middle-east","category-the-maghreb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3159"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3161,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3159\/revisions\/3161"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diplomatique.ma\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}